Democrats see an opportunity to flip several GOP-held Senate seats this fall, including Texas, where the matchup was officially set this week.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
There are two ways for Democrats to think about their chances of winning a majority in the Senate this fall.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
OK. One way suggests their chances are slim. Democrats need to pick up four seats, which requires them to win some very red states, possibly including Texas. Now, the other way suggests their chances are better. Republican retirements, divisive primaries and President Trump’s low approval seem to give Democrats a chance in red states, possibly including Texas.
INSKEEP: NPR’s Stephen Fowler has an assessment. Stephen, good morning.
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Good morning.
INSKEEP: OK. Start with Texas. Ken Paxton, state attorney general, won the primary, knocked off Senator John Cornyn. So what makes that race a little harder for Republicans?
FOWLER: Well, for starters, there’s no incumbency advantage there. Paxton’s margins were decisive in the runoff. That saw lower turnout. And the official Republican Senate campaign arm spent months running brutal attack ads against the candidate who is now their nominee. All the while, Democrat James Talarico has been a fundraising juggernaut, has way more party unity behind him in a favorable environment for Democrats and is already leaning in on the myriad scandals that have plagued Paxton.
INSKEEP: OK. So Democrats feel good about their candidate. Republicans feel a little less good. Is this pattern repeated in some other states?
FOWLER: Well, I also want to note, that’s kind of the inverse of the 2022 midterms, where Republicans had the structural advantage, trying to knock off Democrats in a redder year. But you had Trump-backed nominees fall short in competitive states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona. But you are right. There are several states this year where Democrats have the best candidates they could actually hope for against vulnerable incumbents, and they’re hoping to ride a wave.
INSKEEP: OK. So we mentioned Texas already, but walk us across the whole map here.
FOWLER: Democrats need to hold on to Georgia and Michigan and flip four of the following – North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. Some of those are red states, others a bit more purple. In a normal year, you may think that’s a Sisyphean task. I mean, Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas in three decades, for example. But the way polls are looking and with the demographics of Texas in particular, that could very likely be that 51st seat for Democrats.
INSKEEP: OK. So you just named about half a dozen purple or red states. Democrats would need to win several of them. How do you get to the point where a Democrat would win in a heavily Republican state?
FOWLER: Think of it like a game of tug-of-war, Steve. In this case, Republicans have to contend with Trump not being on the ballot cheering people on and maybe some of his supporters not showing up. Plus, some moderates who might be opposed to Paxton could stay home too. And on the other side, Democrats hope to bring back some people that they lost in recent elections, and they’re anchored by a base of supporters who are also stronger, more energized, more determined to vote, and that may pull Talarico across the finish line.
INSKEEP: OK. So that is the way things would look in Texas, but we mentioned these other states. I guess in some states, the candidates are not entirely settled, right?
FOWLER: Right. Still worth watching. Iowa Democrats on Tuesday have to decide who they want to face off against Representative Ashley Hinson. The options there are Josh Turek and Zach Wahls. And then Michigan’s primary is the beginning of August, and that’s one where Republicans are actually feeling the most optimistic for a flip right now. But, you know, Steve, this is politics, so things always change.
INSKEEP: That’s a good point. There are states where Democrats are on the offensive, trying to flip a seat, but they are desperate to hold on in places like Michigan as well. Stephen, thanks so much.
FOWLER: Thank you.
INSKEEP: That’s NPR political reporter Stephen Fowler, who’s in Atlanta.
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